What is the probability of seeing a no hitter in Major League Baseball

A no-hitter in Major League Baseball (MLB) is a rare feat, occurring when a pitcher does not allow any hits during a complete game. The probability of a no-hitter in MLB is influenced by several factors, including the skill of the pitcher and the opposing team's batting lineup.

Statistically, the probability of a no-hitter in MLB is around 0.005%, which means that a pitcher has a 1 in 200 chance of throwing a no-hitter. However, this probability is reduced when facing a strong batting lineup.

For example, in 2021, there were only six no-hitters thrown in MLB, with each pitcher facing an average opponent batting average of .240. This suggests that the probability of a no-hitter is even lower when facing a more potent offense.

Additionally, the probability of a no-hitter is affected by the number of innings pitched. The more innings a pitcher throws, the greater the likelihood that a hit will occur.

Related Questions:

What is the probability of a perfect game in MLB? Perfect games are rarer than no-hitters, occurring when a pitcher does not allow any hits, walks, or errors in a complete game. The probability of a perfect game in MLB is around 0.0002%.
Who has thrown the most no-hitters in MLB history? Nolan Ryan holds the record for most no-hitters thrown in MLB history, with seven.
What is the longest no-hitter in MLB history? The longest no-hitter in MLB history was thrown by Max Scherzer in 2015, who pitched 20 strikeouts in nine innings.
What is the most recent no-hitter in MLB history? The most recent no-hitter in MLB history was thrown by Wade Miley on May 7, 2022.
What is the probability of a double no-hitter in MLB? A double no-hitter occurs when neither team gets a hit in a game. The probability of a double no-hitter in MLB is extremely rare, estimated to be around 0.000002%.

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What is the Probability of Seeing a No Hitter in Major League Baseball?